Ruinous Waterbending

Uncommon · Sorcery — Lesson

Pick rating

4.6WeakRank 208 of 281

Observed strength

51.2%Rank 254 of 279 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

A solid playable that rarely gets cut (4.6/10).

Why. A sorcery giving all creatures -2/-2 until end of turn: a sweeper against decks of small creatures or tokens. If you pay the Waterbend additional cost (four), you also gain 1 life whenever a creature dies this turn.

Risks. It hits your own creatures as well and does not kill big bodies. In a deck full of small creatures it hurts you more than your opponent.

In the draft. A card for a defensive or control black deck, good if your creatures have more than two toughness. Otherwise let it go; in blue-black it fits more easily.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game51.2 %(set average : 56.2 %)
Card in the opening hand48.9 %(set average : 55.4 %)
Card drawn during the game52.6 %(set average : 56.8 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -0.2 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)16.0 %(set average : 61.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Uncommon: rank 83 of 110
  • Black: rank 28 of 40
  • Cost 3: rank 46 of 64
  • Average pick: 10.3 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

3,636 games53.9 %(all pairs : 51.9 %)
1,070 games50.5 %(all pairs : 51.9 %)
921 games49.2 %(all pairs : 51.9 %)
756 games47.6 %(all pairs : 51.9 %)
630 games56.7 %(all pairs : 51.9 %)
483 games52.2 %(all pairs : 51.9 %)
275 games48.0 %(all pairs : 51.9 %)
144 games47.2 %(all pairs : 51.9 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand56.1 %· 815 games
All players, card in hand51.7 %· 3,634 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)54.1 %(set average : 59.1 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)49.5 %(set average : 52.9 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy52.0 % · 7,879 games
  • 2 copies50.0 % · 430 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks53.5 % · 2,178 games
  • Next two weeks50.3 % · 898 games
  • After that47.0 % · 558 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Raven Eagle

    15. Raven Eagle

    8.2
  • Foggy Swamp Spirit Keeper

    36. Foggy Swamp Spirit Keeper

    7.3
  • Boiling Rock Rioter

    64. Boiling Rock Rioter

    6.6
  • Ozai's Cruelty

    83. Ozai's Cruelty

    6.4

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.