Festival of Embers
Rare · Enchantment
4.8WeakRank 184 of 261
48.1%Rank 260 of 265 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (4.8/10).
Why. A five-mana enchantment that lets you cast instants and sorceries from your graveyard again by paying 1 life each, and exiles anything that would go there. In a spells deck, it is a long-term value engine.
Risks. Five mana with no immediate board effect. Your new spells go to exile instead of the graveyard, so it only replays what is already there, and it hurts Threshold.
In the draft. A niche card for a red deck with lots of spells. In any other deck, do not play it.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -0.4 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 58 of 60
- Red: rank 25 of 41
- Cost 5: rank 17 of 26
- Average pick: 8.6 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks47.1 % · 733 games
- Next two weeks51.2 % · 242 games
- After that46.0 % · 126 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Sugar Coat394 games · 55.3 % (instead of 46.5% expected)
- Hearthborn Battler310 games · 55.2 % (instead of 47.1% expected)
- Mindwhisker298 games · 54.0 % (instead of 47.6% expected)
- Ral, Crackling Wit262 games · 52.7 % (instead of 46.2% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Blacksmith's Talent213 games · 40.4 % (instead of 47.9% expected)
- Frilled Sparkshooter289 games · 41.2 % (instead of 46.7% expected)
- Sunspine Lynx223 games · 41.7 % (instead of 46.3% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
11. Dragonhawk, Fate's Tempest
8.4
118. Season of the Bold
5.8
131. Quaketusk Boar
5.6
161. Reptilian Recruiter
5.2
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.