Dragonhawk, Fate's Tempest

Mythic · Legendary Creature — Bird Dragon

Pick rating

8.4BombRank 11 of 261

Observed strength

62.3%Rank 13 of 265 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

One of the very best mythics of the format (8.4/10).

Why. A five-mana 5/5 flier that exiles cards from your library on entering and on every attack, based on the number of your creatures with power 4 or greater, itself included. You may play them until your next end step, so in practice this turn; each card left exiled deals 2 damage to the opponent.

Risks. After paying five mana you have little left to play the exiled cards. It is strongest on later attacks, when you have mana available, and it dies to removal.

In the draft. A very good pick for a red deck with enough high-power creatures. A flying 5/5 is already a good reason to take it.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game62.3 %(set average : 56.0 %)
Card in the opening hand60.1 %(set average : 55.0 %)
Card drawn during the game63.8 %(set average : 56.6 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +10.1 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)86.0 %(set average : 62.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Mythic: rank 5 of 20
  • Red: rank 3 of 41
  • Cost 5: rank 4 of 26
  • Average pick: 1.5 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

5,534 games56.3 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)
5,292 games59.0 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)
4,912 games56.9 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)
2,218 games54.4 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)
291 games52.9 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)

splash

246 games48.8 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)
237 games53.2 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)
193 games53.4 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand60.3 %· 1,562 games
All players, card in hand62.4 %· 8,200 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)60.1 %(set average : 58.0 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)53.0 %(set average : 51.2 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy56.5 % · 19,593 games
  • 2 copies56.4 % · 362 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks62.7 % · 5,039 games
  • Next two weeks61.9 % · 2,189 games
  • After that61.9 % · 972 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Season of the Bold

    118. Season of the Bold

    5.8
  • Quaketusk Boar

    131. Quaketusk Boar

    5.6
  • Reptilian Recruiter

    161. Reptilian Recruiter

    5.2
  • Alania, Divergent Storm

    181. Alania, Divergent Storm

    4.8

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.