Long River Lurker
Uncommon · Creature — Frog Scout
5.6PlayableRank 128 of 261
57.0%Rank 89 of 265 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
Good playable that always makes the cut (5.6/10).
Why. A blue 2/3 with ward 1 that also gives other Frogs ward 1. When it enters, one of your creatures can't be blocked this turn, and if it deals combat damage you may blink it to replay its enter effect.
Risks. Its value depends on having a good creature to target. The body is modest, and ward 1 costs the opponent only one extra mana.
In the draft. A good uncommon for a blue-green deck with Frogs and enter effects. Outside that base it is average.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +4.9 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Uncommon: rank 49 of 100
- Blue: rank 17 of 41
- Cost 3: rank 28 of 65
- Average pick: 5.5 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy53.7 % · 53,587 games
- 2 copies54.9 % · 13,030 games
- 3 copies55.6 % · 2,155 games
- 4 copies or more55.7 % · 183 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks56.7 % · 21,420 games
- Next two weeks56.4 % · 10,169 games
- After that57.4 % · 4,256 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Lumra, Bellow of the Woods2,344 games · 57.4 % (instead of 54.7% expected)
- Mockingbird8,100 games · 55.5 % (instead of 52.9% expected)
- Fecund Greenshell5,522 games · 59.4 % (instead of 56.8% expected)
- Mistbreath Elder8,307 games · 56.8 % (instead of 54.3% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Wishing Well318 games · 45.9 % (instead of 52.2% expected)
- Alania, Divergent Storm914 games · 44.1 % (instead of 48.6% expected)
- Stormcatch Mentor1,356 games · 46.2 % (instead of 50.1% expected)
Where it is played
G/U · 52 %
Played in 7.5% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
20. Glarb, Calamity's Augur
7.7
60. Clement, the Worrywort
6.6
85. Helga, Skittish Seer
6.2
116. Mindwhisker
5.8
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.