Mistbreath Elder
Rare · Creature — Frog Warrior
7.2Very goodRank 36 of 261
58.1%Rank 62 of 265 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A very good rare of the format (7.2/10).
Why. A one-mana 2/2 that grows each turn by returning another creature you control to hand. The rhythm is demanding, but if your creatures have enter effects you replay them for value while the Elder gains a counter.
Risks. The bounce is mandatory: replaying a creature every turn costs mana and tempo. With no other creature it may return itself and loses its counters.
In the draft. Take it in a green deck full of creatures with enter effects; otherwise it is an average card. Less appealing in a pure speed deck.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +5.8 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 23 of 60
- Green: rank 8 of 41
- Cost 1: rank 6 of 30
- Average pick: 2.5 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy54.9 % · 36,889 games
- 2 copies55.0 % · 1,717 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks57.8 % · 10,294 games
- Next two weeks58.4 % · 5,000 games
- After that57.7 % · 2,147 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Gossip's Talent2,805 games · 54.9 % (instead of 50.3% expected)
- Thundertrap Trainer1,649 games · 58.5 % (instead of 54.6% expected)
- Knightfisher2,131 games · 56.1 % (instead of 52.2% expected)
- Splash Portal5,964 games · 56.9 % (instead of 53.3% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Take Out the Trash2,001 games · 52.1 % (instead of 55.1% expected)
- Sonar Strike2,443 games · 52.5 % (instead of 55.1% expected)
- Junkblade Bruiser3,767 games · 50.5 % (instead of 52.8% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
23. Pawpatch Recruit
7.6
34. Valley Mightcaller
7.3
69. For the Common Good
6.6
158. High Stride
5.2
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.