Nocturnal Hunger
Common · Instant
5.3PlayableRank 151 of 261
57.0%Rank 91 of 265 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins more than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.3/10).
Why. An unconditional instant-speed removal: it destroys any creature for three mana. If you promise the Gift, you avoid losing two life.
Risks. Without the Gift you lose two life. With the Gift, the opponent gets a Food token and can gain life.
In the draft. A reliable common removal: take it ahead of most creatures if you play black.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +3.0 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 9 of 81
- Black: rank 27 of 40
- Cost 3: rank 36 of 65
- Average pick: 4.3 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
splash
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy55.4 % · 155,497 games
- 2 copies55.4 % · 50,428 games
- 3 copies54.7 % · 9,306 games
- 4 copies or more53.4 % · 1,124 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks57.0 % · 64,431 games
- Next two weeks56.5 % · 28,882 games
- After that56.9 % · 12,401 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Festival of Embers358 games · 52.2 % (instead of 48.8% expected)
- Wishing Well557 games · 56.0 % (instead of 53.6% expected)
- War Squeak3,459 games · 53.8 % (instead of 51.9% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Waterspout Warden2,440 games · 48.8 % (instead of 52.6% expected)
- Splash Portal4,315 games · 50.6 % (instead of 53.7% expected)
- Gossip's Talent3,704 games · 47.7 % (instead of 50.7% expected)
Where it is played
B/U · 62 %B/R · 57 %
Played in 23% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
14. Zoraline, Cosmos Caller
8.2
19. Camellia, the Seedmiser
7.8
20. Glarb, Calamity's Augur
7.7
21. Darkstar Augur
7.7
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.