Tangle Tumbler

Uncommon · Artifact — Vehicle

Pick rating

6.2GoodRank 91 of 261

Observed strength

53.8%Rank 191 of 265 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

It wins less than its rating suggests.

Why this gap?

The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.

Good playable that always makes the cut (6.2/10).

Why. A 6/6 Vehicle with vigilance that becomes an artifact creature until end of turn by tapping two of your tokens. For three mana it can also put a +1/+1 counter on a creature, making it a useful mana sink even without tokens.

Risks. It needs tokens to attack or block. Without them it only makes counters, slowly. Tapping two tokens costs tempo.

In the draft. A card for a deck with plenty of tokens. In other decks, only take it late.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game53.8 %(set average : 56.0 %)
Card in the opening hand52.6 %(set average : 55.0 %)
Card drawn during the game54.7 %(set average : 56.6 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -0.7 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)28.0 %(set average : 62.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Uncommon: rank 26 of 100
  • Colourless: rank 4 of 19
  • Cost 3: rank 21 of 65
  • Average pick: 9.2 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

13,738 games55.6 %(all pairs : 54.2 %)
4,792 games52.5 %(all pairs : 54.2 %)
2,157 games53.8 %(all pairs : 54.2 %)
2,102 games54.4 %(all pairs : 54.2 %)
595 games48.4 %(all pairs : 54.2 %)
546 games52.0 %(all pairs : 54.2 %)
542 games58.7 %(all pairs : 54.2 %)
536 games54.9 %(all pairs : 54.2 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand55.2 %· 2,299 games
All players, card in hand54.1 %· 10,896 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)58.1 %(set average : 58.0 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)50.4 %(set average : 51.2 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy54.1 % · 25,145 games
  • 2 copies56.2 % · 1,460 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks54.0 % · 6,668 games
  • Next two weeks55.1 % · 2,905 games
  • After that52.5 % · 1,323 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Patchwork Banner

    53. Patchwork Banner

    6.8
  • Barkform Harvester

    230. Barkform Harvester

    4.0

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.