Valley Flamecaller

Rare · Creature — Lizard Warlock

Pick rating

6.8GoodRank 54 of 261

Observed strength

57.1%Rank 87 of 265 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

A very good rare of the format (6.8/10).

Why. A three-mana 3/3 that adds 1 damage to every Lizard, Mouse, Otter or Raccoon you control, itself included. It hits like a 4/3 and improves all your small creatures of those types.

Risks. Only creatures of those four types benefit. Without them it is an ordinary 3/3.

In the draft. A quality pick for red decks with several of these animals. Stronger in an aggressive deck.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game57.1 %(set average : 56.0 %)
Card in the opening hand58.1 %(set average : 55.0 %)
Card drawn during the game56.3 %(set average : 56.6 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +3.1 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)85.0 %(set average : 62.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Rare: rank 31 of 60
  • Red: rank 5 of 41
  • Cost 3: rank 13 of 65
  • Average pick: 2.3 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

12,745 games57.7 %(all pairs : 55.2 %)
9,985 games54.9 %(all pairs : 55.2 %)
7,589 games54.9 %(all pairs : 55.2 %)
4,359 games51.0 %(all pairs : 55.2 %)
472 games54.0 %(all pairs : 55.2 %)
394 games52.3 %(all pairs : 55.2 %)
297 games46.5 %(all pairs : 55.2 %)
109 games45.0 %(all pairs : 55.2 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand55.7 %· 2,893 games
All players, card in hand56.9 %· 14,932 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)59.7 %(set average : 58.0 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)50.7 %(set average : 51.2 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy55.1 % · 34,405 games
  • 2 copies56.9 % · 1,859 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks56.8 % · 9,364 games
  • Next two weeks56.8 % · 3,908 games
  • After that57.2 % · 1,660 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Mabel, Heir to Cragflame

    12. Mabel, Heir to Cragflame

    8.3
  • Muerra, Trash Tactician

    52. Muerra, Trash Tactician

    6.8
  • Baylen, the Haymaker

    59. Baylen, the Haymaker

    6.6
  • The Infamous Cruelclaw

    65. The Infamous Cruelclaw

    6.6

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.