Sizzling Changeling
Uncommon · Creature — Shapeshifter
4.8WeakRank 189 of 264
54.1%Rank 164 of 264 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.7%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (4.8/10).
Why. A 3/2 changeling for three mana that leaves value behind: when it dies you exile the top card of your library and may play it until the end of your next turn. It trades with no loss.
Risks. A 3/2 is small and you will not always be able to play the exiled card, especially if it is expensive.
In the draft. A good red uncommon for an aggressive deck. For a deck that wants to attack and trade, it is worth the pick.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +1.3 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Uncommon: rank 77 of 100
- Red: rank 27 of 40
- Cost 3: rank 46 of 66
- Average pick: 5.3 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy54.0 % · 41,140 games
- 2 copies54.6 % · 6,500 games
- 3 copies50.0 % · 546 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks54.3 % · 15,824 games
- Next two weeks54.2 % · 5,161 games
- After that55.2 % · 1,886 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Dream Harvest866 games · 54.2 % (instead of 49.5% expected)
- Lavaleaper374 games · 51.1 % (instead of 47.2% expected)
- Rime Chill2,408 games · 54.5 % (instead of 51.2% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Darkness Descends459 games · 44.2 % (instead of 47.8% expected)
- Assert Perfection2,689 games · 52.2 % (instead of 55.5% expected)
- Bloodline Bidding1,470 games · 53.4 % (instead of 55.5% expected)
Where it is played
B/R · 29 %R/W · 29 %
Played in 9.1% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
72. Eclipsed Boggart
6.4
73. Eclipsed Flamekin
6.4
101. Meek Attack
6.0
102. Noggle Robber
6.0
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.