Hero's Downfall
Uncommon · Instant
6.6GoodRank 64 of 271
57.3%Rank 68 of 274 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.7%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A solid uncommon of the format (6.6/10).
Why. A three-mana instant that destroys a creature or planeswalker. It is simple removal with no size restriction, answering almost every threat.
Risks. It needs two black mana. It is expensive against two-drops and does not touch other permanents.
In the draft. Unconditional removal: take it high in black. The black pairs with white, blue or red use it well.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +4.3 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Uncommon: rank 21 of 101
- Black: rank 8 of 43
- Cost 3: rank 20 of 69
- Average pick: 2.9 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy54.6 % · 77,388 games
- 2 copies55.8 % · 9,785 games
- 3 copies53.6 % · 743 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks57.4 % · 26,183 games
- Next two weeks56.6 % · 12,711 games
- After that55.6 % · 1,920 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- An Offer You Can't Refuse276 games · 54.0 % (instead of 48.3% expected)
- Authority of the Consuls1,013 games · 54.4 % (instead of 52.2% expected)
- Raise the Past596 games · 53.7 % (instead of 51.9% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Hidetsugu's Second Rite606 games · 50.5 % (instead of 54.7% expected)
- Reclamation Sage1,841 games · 48.0 % (instead of 51.7% expected)
Where it is played
B/R · 28 %B/G · 27 %
Played in 11% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
24. Dreadwing Scavenger
7.6
29. Alesha, Who Laughs at Fate
7.4
51. Abyssal Harvester
6.9
67. Phyrexian Arena
6.6
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.