An Offer You Can't Refuse
Uncommon · Instant
4.8WeakRank 188 of 271
48.2%Rank 257 of 274 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.7%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (4.8/10).
Why. A one-mana instant that counters a noncreature spell, but gives the countered spell's controller two Treasure tokens. It answers a removal spell or a key spell cheaply.
Risks. It cannot counter creatures, and the opponent gets mana. It also needs blue mana held open, which strains a tempo deck.
In the draft. A niche counterspell, taken late in a blue control deck. Do not take it over a real playable.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +0.7 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Uncommon: rank 67 of 101
- Blue: rank 30 of 44
- Cost 1: rank 21 of 28
- Average pick: 11.3 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy48.5 % · 4,018 games
- 2 copies41.2 % · 211 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Hero's Downfall276 games · 54.0 % (instead of 48.3% expected)
- Vanguard Seraph392 games · 53.1 % (instead of 48.2% expected)
- Healer's Hawk521 games · 53.9 % (instead of 49.6% expected)
- High Fae Trickster647 games · 51.6 % (instead of 47.2% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Llanowar Elves236 games · 42.4 % (instead of 48.1% expected)
- Treetop Snarespinner265 games · 41.5 % (instead of 47.2% expected)
- Self-Reflection409 games · 42.1 % (instead of 46.6% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
32. Spectral Sailor
7.4
100. Fleeting Distraction
6.0
210. Witness Protection
4.5
246. Aegis Turtle
3.2
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.