Most Decrepit Old Bird // Speak Secrets
Rare · Creature — Bird // Sorcery — Adventure
6.2GoodRank 64 of 188
55.6%Rank 81 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
Good playable that always makes the cut (6.2/10).
Why. A 1/1 flier for one blue mana that becomes a 2/2 once your graveyard has seven cards. Its Adventure, Speak Secrets, a sorcery, mills the top four cards of your library and puts an instant or sorcery card from among them into your hand: it feeds threshold.
Risks. The seven-card threshold comes late and the 1/1 is a weak body until then. With few instants and sorceries, Speak Secrets often finds nothing.
In the draft. A card for a blue spells and graveyard deck; otherwise filler. A late pick.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +4.2 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 26 of 53
- Blue: rank 7 of 28
- Cost 1: rank 5 of 12
- Average pick: 6.2 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy53.9 % · 7,259 games
- 2 copies49.7 % · 599 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks56.0 % · 2,896 games
- Next two weeks55.1 % · 704 games
- After that53.3 % · 422 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Riddles in the Dark441 games · 53.3 % (instead of 47.5% expected)
- Mirkwood Meditator240 games · 50.0 % (instead of 45.7% expected)
- The Lord of the Eagles908 games · 51.7 % (instead of 48.3% expected)
- Iron Hills Blacksmith1,193 games · 57.5 % (instead of 54.2% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Troop of Ponies433 games · 43.9 % (instead of 51.4% expected)
- Goblin Plate Mail465 games · 48.4 % (instead of 54.6% expected)
- Roll-Roll-Roll-Roll195 games · 37.9 % (instead of 43.6% expected)
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.