Riddles in the Dark
Rare · Instant
5.6PlayableRank 96 of 188
51.2%Rank 156 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
Good playable that always makes the cut (5.6/10).
Why. A three-mana instant that looks at the top four cards of your library and separates them into a face-down pile and a face-up pile. Your opponent chooses which goes into your hand; the other goes to the graveyard. You gain at least one card, but not necessarily the best one.
Risks. No effect on the board and an uncertain quality gain: you can lose good cards to the graveyard. In a fast format, it's too slow.
In the draft. Avoid in most decks: filler at best. Don't take it before creatures and removal.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +2.5 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 35 of 53
- Blue: rank 12 of 28
- Cost 3: rank 29 of 46
- Average pick: 6.7 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy50.1 % · 4,794 games
- 2 copies47.7 % · 239 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks51.1 % · 2,028 games
- Next two weeks49.6 % · 274 games
- After that59.0 % · 117 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- An Unexpected Party // At the Door328 games · 61.0 % (instead of 53.3% expected)
- Most Decrepit Old Bird // Speak Secrets441 games · 53.3 % (instead of 47.5% expected)
- Elrond, Moon-Reader401 games · 49.9 % (instead of 44.3% expected)
- Silvan Reveler1,118 games · 50.8 % (instead of 46.0% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Ravening Warg254 games · 46.9 % (instead of 51.2% expected)
- Mirkwood356 games · 45.5 % (instead of 49.8% expected)
- Settle the Wreckage308 games · 46.4 % (instead of 50.1% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
22. Great Gilded Boat
7.4
42. Elrond, Moon-Reader
6.6
58. Bard the Bowman
6.3
73. Sound the Trumpets
6.0
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.