Smaug the Magnificent
Mythic · Legendary Creature — Dragon
9.4BombRank 1 of 188
63.6%Rank 4 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
The best card of the set (9.4/10).
Why. A threat that grows on its own. The Treasure created each upkeep feeds the next attack: cast on turn 4, it hits in the air for 4, then 5, 6, 7... The same Treasure can also pay for a colour of your choice, which fixes mana problems. If the opponent has no answer right away, the game often ends within a few attacks.
Risks. It has only 3 toughness: most damage spells or a flying blocker are enough. If the opponent kills it immediately, you spent your turn 4 for nothing. Every Treasure spent on mana is also a point of damage lost.
In the draft. An easy first pick if you are red. It costs two red mana (RR), so it splashes poorly.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +8.7 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Mythic: rank 1 of 15
- Red: rank 1 of 29
- Cost 4: rank 1 of 31
- Average pick: 1.4 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
splash
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy58.7 % · 9,777 games
- 2 copies66.2 % · 154 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks63.4 % · 2,828 games
- Next two weeks63.4 % · 779 games
- After that64.7 % · 518 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- The Great Goblin643 games · 62.1 % (instead of 58.6% expected)
- Gnashing of Teeth1,505 games · 62.3 % (instead of 59.0% expected)
- Gandalf, Goblins' Bane // Flameshape437 games · 61.6 % (instead of 58.6% expected)
- The Sackville-Bagginses713 games · 62.8 % (instead of 60.1% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Lakeshore Apothecary540 games · 52.2 % (instead of 57.9% expected)
- Long Lake Nuisance539 games · 52.7 % (instead of 58.1% expected)
- Plunder the Trollshaws587 games · 53.5 % (instead of 58.4% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
2. Thorin, Mountain-king
9.2
31. Burn, Burn, Tree and Fern
7.0
54. Glóin the Mighty // Easy Pickings
6.4
101. Desolation of Smaug
5.4
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.