Gandalf, Goblins' Bane // Flameshape
Mythic · Legendary Creature — Avatar Wizard // Sorcery — Adventure
8.4BombRank 8 of 188
57.9%Rank 49 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
One of the 10 best cards of the set (8.5/10).
Why. A three-drop that rewards noncreature spells: each time you cast one, Gandalf gets +1/+1 until end of turn and deals 1 damage to each opponent. Its Flameshape half, a two-mana sorcery with one red, exiles the top two cards of your library face down; you may play them as long as you control a Wizard.
Risks. It depends on a deck full of noncreature spells; without them it is an average creature. Cards exiled by Flameshape can only be played if you control a Wizard: Gandalf is one himself, but if he dies they are stuck.
In the draft. Good pick in red decks heavy on noncreature spells. Cast Flameshape first, then Gandalf from exile, so you can play the exiled cards afterwards.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +3.1 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Mythic: rank 6 of 15
- Red: rank 3 of 29
- Cost 3: rank 1 of 46
- Average pick: 2.1 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
splash
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy55.8 % · 7,734 games
- 2 copies63.6 % · 132 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks56.9 % · 2,313 games
- Next two weeks57.4 % · 592 games
- After that60.3 % · 370 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- My Precious // Allure of Power401 games · 55.4 % (instead of 51.5% expected)
- Smaug the Magnificent437 games · 61.6 % (instead of 58.6% expected)
- Great Fierce Bee603 games · 56.7 % (instead of 54.0% expected)
- Large Bear581 games · 58.7 % (instead of 56.1% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Long Lake Nuisance408 games · 50.2 % (instead of 55.3% expected)
- Enchanted River's Grasp426 games · 49.1 % (instead of 54.0% expected)
- Bilbo Baggins, Burglar // Take a Glance554 games · 51.4 % (instead of 55.0% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
15. Dáin Ironfoot
7.7
66. The Misty Mountains Cold
6.2
84. The Great Goblin
5.8
88. Dori, Bearer of Friends
5.7
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.