Desolation of Smaug
Rare · Sorcery
5.4PlayableRank 101 of 188
52.4%Rank 139 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.4/10).
Why. A red sweeper: three damage to each non-Dragon creature, and you add four mana in any combination of colours, to be spent only on Dragon spells. In a deck with Dragons, the added mana pays for a Dragon right away, in the same phase.
Risks. It also hits your own creatures. The mana can only pay for Dragon spells: without a Dragon in hand, you just have a four-mana sweeper. It is hard to fit in an attacking deck. It needs two red mana (RR).
In the draft. Play it only if you have Dragons, or a control deck that benefits from a sweeper. In an aggressive red deck, leave it in the sideboard.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -1.2 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 38 of 53
- Red: rank 17 of 29
- Cost 4: rank 19 of 31
- Average pick: 5.0 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy53.8 % · 6,562 games
- 2 copies54.3 % · 372 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks52.4 % · 2,072 games
- Next two weeks54.7 % · 510 games
- After that52.1 % · 313 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- My Precious // Allure of Power383 games · 55.4 % (instead of 49.4% expected)
- Troop of Ponies633 games · 55.0 % (instead of 51.7% expected)
- Along the Crooked Way371 games · 54.2 % (instead of 51.3% expected)
- Fíli the Pathfinder432 games · 60.2 % (instead of 57.3% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- The Master of Lake-town385 games · 49.4 % (instead of 53.9% expected)
- Mirkwood387 games · 49.1 % (instead of 53.6% expected)
- Smaug's Fury793 games · 48.9 % (instead of 51.7% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
1. Smaug the Magnificent
9.4
2. Thorin, Mountain-king
9.2
31. Burn, Burn, Tree and Fern
7.0
54. Glóin the Mighty // Easy Pickings
6.4
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.