Crashing Wave

Uncommon · Sorcery

Pick rating

5.0PlayableRank 183 of 281

Observed strength

52.2%Rank 234 of 279 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.0/10).

Why. A two-mana blue sorcery that requires waterbend X as an additional cost: it taps up to X target creatures, then distributes three stun counters among tapped opposing creatures. A tempo swing at the right moment.

Risks. Costly to cast, since you tap your own creatures and artifacts, which removes your attackers or blockers. It kills nothing, it only slows.

In the draft. A tempo spell for a blue deck with a wide board. Take it if you build around a big attack, otherwise skip it.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game52.2 %(set average : 56.2 %)
Card in the opening hand47.3 %(set average : 55.4 %)
Card drawn during the game55.1 %(set average : 56.8 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +0.5 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)25.0 %(set average : 61.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Uncommon: rank 70 of 110
  • Blue: rank 28 of 40
  • Cost 2: rank 55 of 74
  • Average pick: 9.3 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

5,531 games54.1 %(all pairs : 52.4 %)
3,078 games53.5 %(all pairs : 52.4 %)
2,979 games50.9 %(all pairs : 52.4 %)
1,114 games52.3 %(all pairs : 52.4 %)
739 games48.7 %(all pairs : 52.4 %)
533 games51.6 %(all pairs : 52.4 %)
366 games49.5 %(all pairs : 52.4 %)
294 games46.9 %(all pairs : 52.4 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand52.1 %· 1,476 games
All players, card in hand52.5 %· 6,893 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)56.7 %(set average : 59.1 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)48.3 %(set average : 52.9 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy52.6 % · 14,635 games
  • 2 copies49.6 % · 678 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks52.1 % · 3,931 games
  • Next two weeks52.5 % · 1,910 games
  • After that53.9 % · 1,052 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Wan Shi Tong, Librarian

    1. Wan Shi Tong, Librarian

    9.4
  • Knowledge Seeker

    56. Knowledge Seeker

    6.8
  • Benevolent River Spirit

    63. Benevolent River Spirit

    6.6
  • Hermitic Herbalist

    69. Hermitic Herbalist

    6.6

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.