Ran and Shaw

Rare · Legendary Creature — Dragon

Pick rating

7.0GoodRank 50 of 281

Observed strength

58.3%Rank 54 of 279 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

A very good rare of the format (7.0/10).

Why. A 4/4 flier with firebending 2 for five. With three or more Dragon and/or Lesson cards in your graveyard when it enters, you get a nonlegendary copy. For four mana, your Dragons get +2/+0 until end of turn.

Risks. The copy needs three specific cards in the graveyard and that you cast it. Without that it is just a five-mana 4/4 flier. It requires two red mana.

In the draft. A good pick for red decks, especially with Lessons. Even without the copy it is a decent finisher to take.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game58.3 %(set average : 56.2 %)
Card in the opening hand54.7 %(set average : 55.4 %)
Card drawn during the game60.5 %(set average : 56.8 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +4.6 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)88.0 %(set average : 61.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Rare: rank 23 of 60
  • Red: rank 7 of 40
  • Cost 5: rank 7 of 29
  • Average pick: 2.1 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

8,938 games59.6 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)
4,392 games55.9 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)
3,167 games57.0 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)
3,102 games54.9 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)
2,987 games55.2 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)
868 games54.4 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)
725 games52.0 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)
548 games52.7 %(all pairs : 56.5 %)

splash

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand60.0 %· 3,797 games
All players, card in hand58.6 %· 12,542 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)59.3 %(set average : 59.1 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)53.6 %(set average : 52.9 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy56.3 % · 25,926 games
  • 2 copies59.9 % · 1,394 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks58.4 % · 6,374 games
  • Next two weeks58.2 % · 3,600 games
  • After that59.6 % · 2,568 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Bumi, Unleashed

    10. Bumi, Unleashed

    8.6
  • Jet, Freedom Fighter

    87. Jet, Freedom Fighter

    6.3
  • Sozin's Comet

    126. Sozin's Comet

    5.8
  • Fire Nation Attacks

    135. Fire Nation Attacks

    5.6

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.