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Solstice Revelations

Uncommon · Instant — Lesson

Pick rating

5.0PlayableRank 189 of 281

Observed strength

51.1%Rank 257 of 279 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

It wins less than its rating suggests.

Why this gap?

The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.

A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.0/10).

Why. A three-mana Lesson instant that exiles from the top of your library until a nonland card, which you cast free if its mana value is less than your number of Mountains, otherwise you take it into your hand. Flashback gives a second use.

Risks. The result is random, and with few Mountains the free cast is rare. In practice it is often three mana for a random card.

In the draft. A card for a nearly mono-red deck heavy on Mountains. Elsewhere it is too inconsistent to merit a pick.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game51.1 %(set average : 56.2 %)

Card in the opening hand49.8 %(set average : 55.4 %)

Card drawn during the game52.0 %(set average : 56.8 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -1.8 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)18.0 %(set average : 61.0 %)

Its place in the set

Uncommon: rank 72 of 110
Red: rank 25 of 40
Cost 3: rank 40 of 64
Average pick: 10.5 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.