Thrill of Possibility
Common · Instant
4.4WeakRank 219 of 271
51.7%Rank 217 of 274 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.7%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A good playable, but is sometimes cut (4.4/10).
Why. A two-mana instant that costs an extra discard and draws two cards. It turns a dead card into two fresh ones and improves your hand.
Risks. It does not change the board and nets no extra cards: you discard one to draw two. It does nothing for your tempo and is worth little if you have no spare card to discard.
In the draft. Filler for a red deck that likes to filter its draws. It does not deserve a high pick, but it is playable.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -1.2 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 63 of 90
- Red: rank 36 of 43
- Cost 2: rank 44 of 57
- Average pick: 10.6 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy52.7 % · 49,413 games
- 2 copies51.7 % · 10,141 games
- 3 copies50.3 % · 1,434 games
- 4 copies or more48.2 % · 141 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks51.3 % · 19,077 games
- Next two weeks51.7 % · 8,320 games
- After that53.0 % · 1,044 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Crypt Feaster1,146 games · 52.6 % (instead of 48.5% expected)
- Thousand-Year Storm904 games · 42.9 % (instead of 40.0% expected)
- Zombify2,419 games · 52.3 % (instead of 49.8% expected)
- Banner of Kinship401 games · 52.1 % (instead of 49.7% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Adventuring Gear372 games · 42.7 % (instead of 46.8% expected)
- Ravenous Amulet1,641 games · 48.0 % (instead of 50.6% expected)
Where it is played
R/U · 55 %
Played in 8.0% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
12. Searslicer Goblin
8.4
28. Abrade
7.4
55. Ruby, Daring Tracker
6.8
63. Heartfire Immolator
6.6
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.