Smaug's Fury
Common · Instant
4.2WeakRank 157 of 188
51.5%Rank 151 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A good playable, but is sometimes cut (4.2/10).
Why. A two-mana combat trick: +3/+0 with reach and first strike on a creature. It wins a trade the opponent thought was favourable, or finishes an attack. It can also block a flyer.
Risks. A combat spell with no removal or card advantage: it costs you a card to change a combat. If the opponent responds by removing the creature, you lose two cards.
In the draft. Filler to avoid as a first choice. Take it late and only in an aggressive red deck with plenty of creatures.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -2.3 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 49 of 65
- Red: rank 26 of 29
- Cost 2: rank 51 of 55
- Average pick: 11.0 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy54.4 % · 14,312 games
- 2 copies52.1 % · 1,960 games
- 3 copies43.4 % · 106 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks52.7 % · 5,031 games
- Next two weeks53.2 % · 1,239 games
- After that48.7 % · 704 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- The Black Arrow1,308 games · 54.1 % (instead of 50.9% expected)
- Orcrist, Goblin-cleaver303 games · 51.5 % (instead of 48.7% expected)
- The Sackville-Bagginses1,041 games · 57.7 % (instead of 55.4% expected)
- Thorin's Last Stand1,187 games · 50.6 % (instead of 48.3% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Old Thrush1,082 games · 47.5 % (instead of 51.5% expected)
- Moment of Glory973 games · 46.2 % (instead of 50.3% expected)
- Desert Were-Worm593 games · 45.4 % (instead of 48.5% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
6. Dáin's Company
8.7
14. Bothersome Noisemaker
7.8
28. Dwalin, Weaponmaster
7.1
41. Pinecone Strike
6.7
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.