Pinecone Strike

Common · Instant

Pick rating

6.7GoodRank 41 of 188

Observed strength

59.0%Rank 32 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

One of the best commons of the format (6.7/10).

Why. A two-mana red instant that deals 3 damage to a creature and exiles it if it would die this turn. The second mode destroys an artifact token, and you can choose both. An efficient, cheap and flexible answer.

Risks. Three damage is not enough for big creatures, and the destroy mode only targets artifact tokens. It only handles medium-sized or smaller threats.

In the draft. A good common removal, to take fairly high in red. It is welcome in every red deck, which wants to control small and medium creatures cheaply.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game59.0 %(set average : 56.5 %)
Card in the opening hand58.6 %(set average : 55.7 %)
Card drawn during the game59.3 %(set average : 57.0 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +2.5 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)90.0 %(set average : 61.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Common: rank 2 of 65
  • Red: rank 7 of 29
  • Cost 2: rank 14 of 55
  • Average pick: 3.7 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

56,771 games58.4 %(all pairs : 57.6 %)
34,873 games57.4 %(all pairs : 57.6 %)
3,705 games57.1 %(all pairs : 57.6 %)
1,851 games54.8 %(all pairs : 57.6 %)
1,266 games51.8 %(all pairs : 57.6 %)
1,225 games54.4 %(all pairs : 57.6 %)
1,159 games52.2 %(all pairs : 57.6 %)
697 games54.2 %(all pairs : 57.6 %)

splash

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand59.2 %· 12,193 games
All players, card in hand59.4 %· 55,706 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)61.8 %(set average : 60.8 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)53.5 %(set average : 51.5 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy56.8 % · 58,874 games
  • 2 copies58.4 % · 33,282 games
  • 3 copies59.6 % · 10,108 games
  • 4 copies or more59.1 % · 2,157 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks59.1 % · 39,558 games
  • Next two weeks59.6 % · 10,103 games
  • After that60.5 % · 6,045 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Where it is played

R/U · 74 %B/R · 69 %

Played in 32% of the decks of the set

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Dáin's Company

    6. Dáin's Company

    8.7
  • Bothersome Noisemaker

    14. Bothersome Noisemaker

    7.8
  • Dwalin, Weaponmaster

    28. Dwalin, Weaponmaster

    7.1
  • Thorin Oakenshield

    57. Thorin Oakenshield

    6.4

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.