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Gurmag Nightwatch

Common · Creature — Human Ranger

Pick rating

4.8WeakRank 192 of 271

Observed strength

55.6%Rank 122 of 274 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

It wins more than its rating suggests.

Why this gap?

The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.

A solid playable that rarely gets cut (4.8/10).

Why. A 3/3 with three hybrid symbols. When it enters, look at the top three cards, keep one on top and put the rest into your graveyard. It improves your draws and feeds the graveyard.

Risks. Each hybrid symbol is paid with its colour or two mana of any type, so it is sometimes expensive. It is best in decks that use the graveyard.

In the draft. A good common for black-green-blue decks. Take it as a mid-curve creature that doesn't cost you a card.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game55.6 %(set average : 56.0 %)

Card in the opening hand54.4 %(set average : 54.9 %)

Card drawn during the game56.4 %(set average : 56.7 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +2.7 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)31.0 %(set average : 65.0 %)

Its place in the set

Common: rank 50 of 91
Multicolour: rank 51 of 66
Cost 6: rank 15 of 23
Average pick: 11.2 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.