← Previous card44. Lotuslight Dancers Next card →46. Rediscover the Way

Mardu Siegebreaker

Rare · Creature — Human Warrior

Pick rating

7.0GoodRank 45 of 271

Observed strength

54.8%Rank 168 of 274 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

It wins less than its rating suggests.

Why this gap?

The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.

A very good rare of the format (7.0/10).

Why. A 4/4 with deathtouch and haste for four mana, already strong on its own. When it enters, it exiles another creature you control until it leaves the battlefield; whenever it attacks, it creates a tapped and attacking token copy of that creature, sacrificed at the beginning of the next end step.

Risks. You need another creature to exile, and that creature is gone while Mardu Siegebreaker is on the battlefield. If it dies, it returns the creature, but you lose tempo. Three exact colours.

In the draft. A good pick for a red-white-black deck with creatures that have useful enter effects. Worse without them: take it after the removal spells.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game54.8 %(set average : 56.0 %)

Card in the opening hand53.6 %(set average : 54.9 %)

Card drawn during the game55.6 %(set average : 56.7 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +1.3 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)84.0 %(set average : 65.0 %)

Its place in the set

Rare: rank 31 of 60
Multicolour: rank 20 of 66
Cost 4: rank 9 of 44
Average pick: 2.3 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.