Early Winter
Common · Instant
2.9WeakRank 238 of 261
53.5%Rank 204 of 265 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
Filler card but sometimes gets cut (2.9/10).
Why. An instant removal that exiles any creature, with no size restriction. The other mode, making the opponent exile an enchantment they control, is a situational bonus.
Risks. Five mana is slow and expensive: you take pressure while you wait to cast it, and the opponent picks which enchantment to exile.
In the draft. Second-tier removal: play it if you lack answers, but take cheaper removal first. It suits slower decks.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +1.4 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 63 of 81
- Black: rank 38 of 40
- Cost 5: rank 23 of 26
- Average pick: 8.5 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy53.3 % · 94,068 games
- 2 copies50.9 % · 12,207 games
- 3 copies48.3 % · 793 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks54.0 % · 29,571 games
- Next two weeks52.6 % · 11,701 games
- After that54.0 % · 4,610 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Wishing Well389 games · 56.0 % (instead of 51.2% expected)
- For the Common Good225 games · 49.3 % (instead of 46.9% expected)
- Dawn's Truce656 games · 51.1 % (instead of 48.7% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Tangle Tumbler2,034 games · 49.8 % (instead of 52.6% expected)
- Starforged Sword1,208 games · 46.7 % (instead of 49.4% expected)
Where it is played
B/U · 37 %B/R · 29 %
Played in 12% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
2. Maha, Its Feathers Night
9.3
7. Season of Loss
8.7
18. Ygra, Eater of All
7.9
125. Coiling Rebirth
5.6
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.