Eluge, the Shoreless Sea
Mythic · Legendary Creature — Elemental Fish
7.0GoodRank 41 of 261
54.4%Rank 172 of 265 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A very good mythic of the format (7.0/10).
Why. A creature that grows with your Islands and turns each targeted land into an extra Island. It arrives bigger than it looks and discounts the first instant or sorcery you cast each turn.
Risks. Three blue mana to cast: very demanding. In a two-colour deck it is often small, and it dies like any creature.
In the draft. Reserve it for heavy-blue decks with many Islands and spells. Otherwise let it go.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +6.4 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Mythic: rank 12 of 20
- Blue: rank 5 of 41
- Cost 4: rank 4 of 38
- Average pick: 4.5 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy50.8 % · 6,696 games
- 2 copies50.2 % · 201 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks52.9 % · 1,849 games
- Next two weeks54.4 % · 926 games
- After that58.4 % · 437 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Longstalk Brawl942 games · 55.7 % (instead of 51.1% expected)
- Lilysplash Mentor1,047 games · 55.4 % (instead of 50.9% expected)
- Three Tree Scribe796 games · 55.0 % (instead of 50.7% expected)
- Wildfire Howl503 games · 51.7 % (instead of 47.5% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Plumecreed Mentor414 games · 43.5 % (instead of 48.4% expected)
- Banishing Light377 games · 48.0 % (instead of 51.2% expected)
- Coruscation Mage710 games · 46.6 % (instead of 49.2% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
9. Dreamdew Entrancer
8.6
55. Vren, the Relentless
6.8
58. Kitnap
6.6
63. Ral, Crackling Wit
6.6
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.