Front Porch Sentries
Common · Creature — Goblin Soldier
5.4PlayableRank 103 of 188
54.9%Rank 95 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.4/10).
Why. A two-mana 2/2, which makes it playable on curve. When it dies, it gives -1/-1 to an opposing creature until end of turn, which can finish off a damaged creature or make a trade favorable.
Risks. The effect is modest: -1/-1 only kills small creatures or ones already damaged. A plain 2/2 stays vulnerable to bigger creatures and gains nothing in a slow game.
In the draft. A good black two-drop, useful in decks that trade. Take it mid-pack; it doesn't replace removal but completes a curve.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -1.5 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 16 of 65
- Black: rank 22 of 27
- Cost 2: rank 31 of 55
- Average pick: 8.3 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy56.6 % · 42,721 games
- 2 copies56.4 % · 14,736 games
- 3 copies56.5 % · 2,457 games
- 4 copies or more54.3 % · 304 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks55.8 % · 20,392 games
- Next two weeks55.9 % · 5,269 games
- After that55.0 % · 3,371 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Thorin, Mountain-king1,588 games · 61.5 % (instead of 58.9% expected)
- Little Bear3,200 games · 53.7 % (instead of 52.4% expected)
- Thranduil, Sindarin Liege // Silvan Rally3,375 games · 57.2 % (instead of 56.0% expected)
- Troll Negotiations5,134 games · 56.6 % (instead of 55.5% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Bilbo Baggins, Burglar // Take a Glance3,023 games · 52.9 % (instead of 55.6% expected)
- Dancing from Dark to Dawn1,305 games · 54.1 % (instead of 56.5% expected)
- Desolation of Smaug1,652 games · 52.2 % (instead of 54.2% expected)
Where it is played
B/R · 49 %B/W · 43 %
Played in 18% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
5. Gollum, Riddle Master
8.8
16. Desolation Prowler
7.6
49. The Sackville-Bagginses
6.6
55. Inside Information
6.4
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.