The Notary Hobbits
Rare · Legendary Creature — Halfling Advisor
5.8PlayableRank 85 of 188
52.1%Rank 143 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
Good playable that always makes the cut (5.8/10).
Why. A five-mana legendary 1/1 (two green) that creates two tokens that are copies of it, except they aren't legendary: you get three Halflings, each producing colorless mana for each Halfling you control. The next turn, that can mean nine colorless mana at once.
Risks. Three 1/1 bodies for five mana, with no ability that changes the board: you need very expensive spells to pay for, or a late game that benefits from the mana. A sweeper takes out the whole group at once. The set does not help you hold the table.
In the draft. A special deckbuilding card, to avoid in most decks. Do not take it over normal creatures. It only has a place if you already have many big spells to cast; otherwise, leave it.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +4.2 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 34 of 53
- Green: rank 9 of 28
- Cost 5: rank 8 of 21
- Average pick: 7.4 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy51.4 % · 2,718 games
- 2 copies46.7 % · 120 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Gandalf, Wandering Wizard255 games · 51.4 % (instead of 45.2% expected)
- Lake-town Mariners // Gone Fishing307 games · 51.5 % (instead of 46.2% expected)
- Silvan Reveler848 games · 52.1 % (instead of 47.2% expected)
- Thranduil's Company379 games · 55.9 % (instead of 51.0% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Master's Councillors157 games · 44.6 % (instead of 51.0% expected)
- Great Fierce Bee186 games · 43.0 % (instead of 49.3% expected)
- Goblin Plate Mail302 games · 46.7 % (instead of 52.3% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
4. Beorn the Fierce
8.9
11. Dancing from Dark to Dawn
8.1
34. Tom, Bert, and William
7.0
77. Large Bear
5.9
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.