Flamehold Grappler
Rare · Creature — Human Monk
6.6GoodRank 62 of 271
55.3%Rank 143 of 274 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A very good rare of the format (6.6/10).
Why. A 3/3 with first strike for three mana, a good body. When it enters, it copies the next spell you cast this turn, with new targets allowed: twice the effect of a removal or value spell.
Risks. The copy needs you to have mana for another spell the same turn, otherwise it is just a 3/3. Three exact colours.
In the draft. A mid-pack pick for a white-blue-red deck with value spells. Take it after the removal spells.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +3.8 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 40 of 60
- Multicolour: rank 25 of 66
- Cost 3: rank 19 of 60
- Average pick: 3.9 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
splash
splash
splash
splash
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy53.7 % · 17,943 games
- 2 copies52.4 % · 1,442 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks54.9 % · 5,487 games
- Next two weeks54.3 % · 2,576 games
- After that58.3 % · 883 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Wingspan Stride654 games · 53.2 % (instead of 48.2% expected)
- Snowmelt Stag1,235 games · 55.1 % (instead of 51.8% expected)
- New Way Forward2,234 games · 53.9 % (instead of 51.2% expected)
- Ringing Strike Mastery2,043 games · 53.2 % (instead of 50.5% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Dragonclaw Strike1,066 games · 48.6 % (instead of 53.2% expected)
- Temur Tawnyback2,475 games · 51.1 % (instead of 54.0% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
3. Sage of the Skies
9.1
21. Tersa Lightshatter
7.7
26. Dragonologist
7.5
29. Anafenza, Unyielding Lineage
7.4
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.