Mongoose Lizard
Common · Creature — Mongoose Lizard
5.2PlayableRank 169 of 281
52.7%Rank 218 of 279 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.2/10).
Why. A 5/6 with menace for six mana that pings any target on entering, enough to finish a small creature or a damaged one. Mountaincycling for two means it is never a dead card when you are short on lands.
Risks. Six mana is heavy and it needs two red mana. One removal spell on a body that already got its enter value costs you a whole turn.
In the draft. A solid top-end for red decks: cycle it early for a land, cast it late as a finisher. One or two copies is plenty; never take it over real threats or removal.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -1.2 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 40 of 91
- Red: rank 22 of 40
- Cost 6: rank 9 of 13
- Average pick: 11.2 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy53.8 % · 24,511 games
- 2 copies55.2 % · 1,659 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks53.7 % · 7,173 games
- Next two weeks54.4 % · 2,536 games
- After that52.7 % · 1,771 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Fire Lord Zuko372 games · 48.7 % (instead of 44.4% expected)
- Bumi Bash8,099 games · 53.8 % (instead of 51.2% expected)
- Rough Rhino Cavalry3,933 games · 54.1 % (instead of 51.4% expected)
- Turtle-Duck1,578 games · 54.2 % (instead of 51.6% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Serpent's Pass1,424 games · 50.2 % (instead of 53.7% expected)
- Canyon Crawler2,432 games · 50.1 % (instead of 53.1% expected)
- Zhao, Ruthless Admiral1,262 games · 47.3 % (instead of 50.0% expected)
Where it is played
G/R · 26 %
Played in 4.8% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
16. Ozai, the Phoenix King
8.1
42. Iroh, Grand Lotus
7.1
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.