Mutant Chain Reaction

Common · Sorcery

Pick rating

1.4WeakRank 189 of 190

Observed strength

51.1%Rank 170 of 184 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 57.7%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

Almost unplayable and mostly sideboard material (1.4/10).

Why. A three-mana sorcery that destroys up to one artifact, enchantment or creature with flying, and creates a Mutagen token. You get a targeted answer and a small bonus.

Risks. The targets are narrow: without an opposing artifact, enchantment or flyer, you only get a Mutagen token for three mana. It can rot in hand.

In the draft. More of a sideboard card. Take it if you see many flyers or equipment, otherwise let it go.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game51.1 %(set average : 57.7 %)
Card in the opening hand48.2 %(set average : 56.4 %)
Card drawn during the game52.9 %(set average : 58.6 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +2.3 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)11.0 %(set average : 61.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Common: rank 66 of 67
  • Green: rank 27 of 27
  • Cost 3: rank 46 of 46
  • Average pick: 11.4 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

2,928 games51.0 %(all pairs : 50.5 %)
2,053 games47.3 %(all pairs : 50.5 %)
1,128 games52.0 %(all pairs : 50.5 %)
287 games48.8 %(all pairs : 50.5 %)
261 games55.2 %(all pairs : 50.5 %)
247 games52.2 %(all pairs : 50.5 %)
157 games54.1 %(all pairs : 50.5 %)
118 games57.6 %(all pairs : 50.5 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand54.4 %· 586 games
All players, card in hand51.8 %· 3,449 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)52.1 %(set average : 59.4 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)48.9 %(set average : 54.2 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy50.8 % · 7,243 games
  • 2 copies46.0 % · 398 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks51.1 % · 2,344 games
  • Next two weeks52.4 % · 919 games
  • After that58.1 % · 186 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Tainted Treats

    29. Tainted Treats

    7.0
  • Novel Nunchaku

    33. Novel Nunchaku

    7.0
  • Transdimensional Bovine

    49. Transdimensional Bovine

    6.6
  • Bebop & Rocksteady

    90. Bebop & Rocksteady

    5.6

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.