Bear Trap
Common · Artifact
5.2PlayableRank 158 of 271
51.5%Rank 234 of 269 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.9%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.2/10).
Why. A one-mana artifact with flash: pay three more, tap it and sacrifice it to deal 3 damage to a creature. You can put it down ahead of time cheaply and trigger it when needed.
Risks. Four mana total for 3 damage is expensive, paid in two steps, and 3 damage does not kill big creatures.
In the draft. A last-resort removal for any deck. Take it late, once the good creatures and more efficient removal are gone.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -0.2 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 28 of 91
- Colourless: rank 12 of 30
- Cost 1: rank 21 of 26
- Average pick: 11.7 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy51.8 % · 26,231 games
- 2 copies49.2 % · 1,208 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks51.8 % · 7,199 games
- Next two weeks50.6 % · 3,402 games
- After that53.3 % · 999 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Keys to the House1,530 games · 52.5 % (instead of 48.5% expected)
- Commune with Evil1,992 games · 54.5 % (instead of 50.5% expected)
- Fear of the Dark2,095 games · 50.7 % (instead of 47.1% expected)
- Murder4,117 games · 53.3 % (instead of 50.1% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Midnight Mayhem1,435 games · 50.6 % (instead of 54.4% expected)
- Painter's Studio // Defaced Gallery1,978 games · 49.4 % (instead of 52.9% expected)
- Ragged Playmate3,118 games · 49.6 % (instead of 52.7% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
44. Ghost Vacuum
7.0
113. Found Footage
5.8
203. Keys to the House
4.6
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.