Fear of the Dark

Common · Enchantment Creature — Nightmare

Pick rating

2.0WeakRank 253 of 271

Observed strength

50.9%Rank 247 of 269 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.9%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

Not good filler and often gets cut (2.0/10).

Why. A 5/5 for five that gains menace and deathtouch when it attacks, as long as the defender has no Glimmer creatures. It is very hard to block well.

Risks. Five mana for a body with no permanent evasion, and a removal spell answers it. If the opponent has a Glimmer creature, you lose the bonuses.

In the draft. A playable for a black deck that needs a five-drop. Nothing more: take your removal first.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game50.9 %(set average : 55.9 %)
Card in the opening hand48.5 %(set average : 55.0 %)
Card drawn during the game52.4 %(set average : 56.6 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +1.7 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)23.0 %(set average : 62.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Common: rank 88 of 91
  • Black: rank 39 of 42
  • Cost 5: rank 25 of 27
  • Average pick: 10.8 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

14,107 games51.8 %(all pairs : 49.9 %)
10,413 games49.3 %(all pairs : 49.9 %)
10,121 games50.2 %(all pairs : 49.9 %)
9,774 games49.3 %(all pairs : 49.9 %)
1,680 games45.1 %(all pairs : 49.9 %)
1,553 games49.6 %(all pairs : 49.9 %)
1,431 games50.1 %(all pairs : 49.9 %)
1,013 games48.7 %(all pairs : 49.9 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand49.2 %· 4,226 games
All players, card in hand50.9 %· 22,675 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)51.4 %(set average : 56.8 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)48.4 %(set average : 52.1 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy50.0 % · 46,691 games
  • 2 copies49.1 % · 5,262 games
  • 3 copies50.0 % · 256 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks51.0 % · 13,924 games
  • Next two weeks50.5 % · 6,440 games
  • After that50.9 % · 2,311 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Where it is played

B/U · 40 %B/W · 33 %

Played in 5.5% of the decks of the set

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Overlord of the Balemurk

    6. Overlord of the Balemurk

    8.8
  • Live or Die

    96. Live or Die

    6.2
  • Defiled Crypt // Cadaver Lab

    159. Defiled Crypt // Cadaver Lab

    5.2
  • Grievous Wound

    254. Grievous Wound

    2.0

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.