Manifest Dread
Common · Sorcery
5.8PlayableRank 117 of 271
56.4%Rank 97 of 269 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.9%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
Good playable that always makes the cut (5.8/10).
Why. For two mana you get a face-down 2/2 and a card in the graveyard. It is a fine cheap body with a chance of flipping a good creature later, and it feeds Delirium.
Risks. A bare 2/2 is still vulnerable, and if neither card is a creature, it can never be turned face up. It is a sorcery: no effect during combat.
In the draft. A good green playable to take mid-pack, ahead of filler. It is best in decks that want to fill the graveyard.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +2.0 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 16 of 91
- Green: rank 17 of 42
- Cost 2: rank 36 of 66
- Average pick: 6.6 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy54.6 % · 139,907 games
- 2 copies55.4 % · 55,991 games
- 3 copies55.9 % · 12,847 games
- 4 copies or more54.0 % · 2,097 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks56.7 % · 61,379 games
- Next two weeks55.5 % · 33,812 games
- After that55.4 % · 11,798 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Miasma Demon8,852 games · 55.3 % (instead of 52.5% expected)
- Abhorrent Oculus7,493 games · 58.9 % (instead of 56.5% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Unidentified Hovership2,838 games · 52.4 % (instead of 56.9% expected)
- Reluctant Role Model2,651 games · 51.6 % (instead of 55.8% expected)
- The Tale of Tamiyo175 games · 44.0 % (instead of 47.7% expected)
Where it is played
B/G · 72 %G/R · 70 %
Played in 21% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
31. Oblivious Bookworm
7.4
36. Broodspinner
7.2
41. Wildfire Wickerfolk
7.0
48. Twitching Doll
7.0
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.