Twitching Doll

Rare · Artifact Creature — Spider Toy

Pick rating

7.0GoodRank 48 of 271

Observed strength

58.0%Rank 50 of 269 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.9%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

A very good rare of the format (7.0/10).

Why. A two-mana 2/2 that makes mana of any colour and collects nest counters. Late in the game you sacrifice it for as many 2/2 green Spider creature tokens with reach as it has counters. Great fixing and ramp.

Risks. Tapping for mana stops it from attacking or blocking, and the sacrifice only works at sorcery speed. It is a fragile body.

In the draft. A good pick for any green deck, especially three-colour ones. Take it even before your colours are settled; it solves your mana problems.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game58.0 %(set average : 55.9 %)
Card in the opening hand60.4 %(set average : 55.0 %)
Card drawn during the game56.2 %(set average : 56.6 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +5.4 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)91.0 %(set average : 62.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Rare: rank 18 of 60
  • Green: rank 7 of 42
  • Cost 2: rank 16 of 66
  • Average pick: 1.8 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

12,035 games55.5 %(all pairs : 54.8 %)
11,604 games56.8 %(all pairs : 54.8 %)
9,429 games55.0 %(all pairs : 54.8 %)
5,108 games53.6 %(all pairs : 54.8 %)
1,678 games52.7 %(all pairs : 54.8 %)
1,556 games53.3 %(all pairs : 54.8 %)
1,248 games49.0 %(all pairs : 54.8 %)
1,152 games53.4 %(all pairs : 54.8 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand56.8 %· 5,340 games
All players, card in hand58.1 %· 20,197 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)57.6 %(set average : 56.8 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)52.0 %(set average : 52.1 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy54.8 % · 45,530 games
  • 2 copies53.8 % · 1,831 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks58.8 % · 11,498 games
  • Next two weeks57.0 % · 6,377 games
  • After that57.8 % · 2,322 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Oblivious Bookworm

    31. Oblivious Bookworm

    7.4
  • Broodspinner

    36. Broodspinner

    7.2
  • Wildfire Wickerfolk

    41. Wildfire Wickerfolk

    7.0
  • Beastie Beatdown

    59. Beastie Beatdown

    6.7

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.