Rite of the Moth

Uncommon · Sorcery

Pick rating

5.4PlayableRank 144 of 271

Observed strength

54.7%Rank 151 of 269 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.9%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.4/10).

Why. A sorcery that returns a creature card from your graveyard to the battlefield with a finality counter, then can be cast again from the graveyard with flashback. Two creatures back for one card is solid value in a white-black deck.

Risks. It needs a good target in your graveyard and costs four mana the first time and six for flashback. It is slow, and without a creature in the graveyard it sits in your hand.

In the draft. A pick for white-black value decks. Take it higher if you have many big creatures; otherwise it is filler.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game54.7 %(set average : 55.9 %)
Card in the opening hand50.9 %(set average : 55.0 %)
Card drawn during the game57.0 %(set average : 56.6 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +4.5 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)55.0 %(set average : 62.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Uncommon: rank 66 of 100
  • Multicolour: rank 24 of 34
  • Cost 4: rank 17 of 41
  • Average pick: 6.8 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

27,925 games52.8 %(all pairs : 51.8 %)
5,409 games51.3 %(all pairs : 51.8 %)
4,602 games52.8 %(all pairs : 51.8 %)

splash

3,189 games48.5 %(all pairs : 51.8 %)
1,237 games44.1 %(all pairs : 51.8 %)
774 games50.1 %(all pairs : 51.8 %)

splash

726 games48.6 %(all pairs : 51.8 %)

splash

312 games51.3 %(all pairs : 51.8 %)

splash

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand54.5 %· 5,537 games
All players, card in hand54.5 %· 21,591 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)53.2 %(set average : 56.8 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)50.4 %(set average : 52.1 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy51.8 % · 35,390 games
  • 2 copies51.8 % · 9,166 games
  • 3 copies52.8 % · 849 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks54.0 % · 12,799 games
  • Next two weeks55.2 % · 6,596 games
  • After that55.1 % · 2,196 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Where it is played

B/W · 59 %

Played in 4.7% of the decks of the set

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • The Swarmweaver

    10. The Swarmweaver

    8.5
  • Niko, Light of Hope

    11. Niko, Light of Hope

    8.5
  • Midnight Mayhem

    24. Midnight Mayhem

    7.6
  • Kaito, Bane of Nightmares

    30. Kaito, Bane of Nightmares

    7.4

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.